Almost 40% of electrolyser capacity worldwide in 2050 could be dedicated to the production of green hydrogen-based sustainable aviation fuels (e-SAF), according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 report said that over 320GW of electrolyser capacity could be installed globally by 2050 in its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), representing nearly 40 million tonnes of hydrogen production.
However, the report found that almost 120GW of electrolysers could be dedicated to synthetic fuel production demand for aviation.
Despite the IEA highlighting the EU’s REFuelEU Aviation policy as a “major driver” of the demand, in its STEPS scenario, just one-sixth of the 120GW will be installed in Europe.
REFuelEU Aviation is a mandate to see aviation fuel suppliers provide a minimum share of 2% SAF at EU airports from 2025 and reach 70% by 2050.
Read more:Europe agrees new law to cut aviation emissions and promote SAF
Liz Rowsell, Chief Technology Officer at Johnson Matthey (JM), previously told H2 View, “If regulated and price-guaranteed, SAFs are a great way to pull through some demonstration technology that we need for renewable hydrogen.”
Read more:Ceres, JM CTOs: Govt support and SAF mandates crucial for hydrogen’s next phase
But the IEA expects other regions with lower-cost electrolytic hydrogen production, due to either policy financial incentives or the availability of low-cost renewable energy resources, will “attract the bulk of the investment and export the fuels produced to Europe.”
China is expected to account for 25% of electrolysers installed by 2050, followed by the US and Middle East each with 24%, Central and South America with 10%, India with 9%, with Africa and Europe holding 7% each.
Under its Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), however, the IEA said electrolysis could account for 80% of the 260 million tonnes of low-emissions hydrogen production in 2050 – 208 million tonnes.
The APS expects transport to account for two-thirds of demand, with maritime fuels alone expected to require over 500GW of electrolysis worldwide. Industry, refining and power applications are expected to account for the rest, the report said.
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