Ireland could produce the cheapest green hydrogen in Europe by 2030, according to new analysis from Aurora Energy Research.
Production under optimal conditions would result in a levelised cost of €3.50/kgH2 (real 2021) in 2030, 8% lower than optimal production costs in Spain and 35% lower than in Germany, Aurora’s modelling shows. Ireland’s competitive advantage stems from its high wind speeds, particularly in the west, compared with other European countries, and rising congestion within the electricity transmission system.
Ireland’s government aims to install 2GW of offshore wind generation connected to electrolysers by 2030, which could produce up to 138kt of green hydrogen annually, Aurora finds. Developers could also produce green hydrogen from surplus renewable power that would otherwise be curtailed.
Irish hydrogen demand rises to 33kt in 2030 under Aurora’s base case forecast, from 11kt in 2023. The industrial sector is projected to account for the highest share of consumption, followed by transport. Production could also be exported: the optimal levelised cost of green hydrogen imports shipped from Cork to Germany in 2030 would be 13% lower than optimal domestic production costs in Germany, its modelling shows.
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