California is expected to fall short of its 2025 target to deploy 200 hydrogen refuelling stations by almost 60%, according to the California Air Resources Board (CARB).
That’s despite Governor Gavin Newsom’s 2018 executive order for the goal, with the installations expected to be co-funded by public and private organisations.
CARB’s 2024 evaluation report estimates that by the end of 2025, just 87 stations will have been established. And even by 2030, it will still miss the mid-decade target, with just 129 stations set up.
The report found that although four new stations have been opened since 2024, the closure of seven stations operated by Shell saw the state’s network decline by four to 62 stations.
While those installations make up one of the most comprehensive networks globally, hydrogen supply and reliability issues rendered seven sites temporarily non-operational (TNO), CARB reported.
Furthermore, the report says the close relationships between station development and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) manufacturers have stumped projected FCEV populations.
“The current projection in the 2024 annual survey is historically the lowest compared to the prior surveys and could imply auto manufacturers no longer expect an accelerated expansion of the hydrogen fuelling network,” it read.
Despite the delayed network expansion and FCEV uptake, CARB still estimates that the total statewide network capacity will outpace hydrogen fuelling demand through to 2030 by almost a factor of 10 – while not accounting for station downtime.
“The statewide network fuelling capacity from 2030 onwards, which does not account for station downtime, will be sufficient for 9.7 times as many FCEVs as are expected on California’s roads, based on the most recent annual auto manufacturer survey.”
However, the organisation believes the overcapacity could provide an opportunity to expand FCEV sales in areas with concentrated stations.
In an attempt to turn the tide on hydrogen refuelling, CARB called on the California Energy Commission (CEC) to use hydrogen infrastructure funding programmes to improve station reliability and retrofit existing sites.
Additionally, the report says state agencies should increase “dialogue” with station operators to improve supply disruptions. More significantly, it suggests conversations could explore automaker investments in hydrogen infrastructure, just as automakers are increasingly investing in building out charging infrastructure.”
The rough road ahead of hydrogen refuelling
As of 2023, more than 1,100 hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) were in operation across the globe1, a 60% increase in deployment from 2021 to October last year. Asian markets saw the most growth in the refuelling sector, with Japan, China and South Korea boasting nearly 800 stations in total, significantly more than Europe with 2501.
Throughout the second half of 2023, more than 10 countries announced plans for hydrogen refuelling stations, mainly in Europe1. The Hydrogen Council predicts that the number of hydrogen refuelling stations deployed will increase if government targets are realised.
Despite promise regarding the widespread deployment and adoption of hydrogen refuelling in Europe, recent closures and stalling of facilities are leaving many questioning the reliability of hydrogen refuelling on the path to a decarbonised transport industry…
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